Taejunomics

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2兆ドルの行方。
 スティグリッツをはじめとした研究者達が、イラク戦争にかかる費用の総額を算定したら、2兆ドルに上るという発表をしたようだ。 今日のJapan Timesの一面の記事に書いてあった。 ヘラルド、ワシントンポスト、毎日、朝日をスキミングしたけれど、それらに記事は書かれていなかったので、その報告のインパクトがどれほどのものか、よくわかっていない。 Tetsuroさん、何か分かりますか?

 算定したのは、駐イラク米兵がこれからその数を減らしていくと仮定して、2010年までにかかる費用。 主な費用は、軍事費、そして、負傷した兵士にあてる補償金との事。
 
 スティグリッツ曰く、かなり保守的(Conservative、「控えめ」、といったニュアンスがいちばん分かりやすいかも)な試算をして、この結果だったらしい。 もちろん、この戦費は、税金によって国民の負担となる。

 
 税には、富の移転機能がある。 マクロ経済の議論においては、主に富裕層と貧民層の間での富の移転が取りざたされる。
 
 戦争の場合は、貧富間の富の移転より、国民全体と軍事関連団体との間の富の移転が問題になりそうだ。 経済理論で、ここらへんを取り扱っているものはあるのだろうか。 誰か、詳しい人、教えて下さったら幸いです。
 
 もちろん、最大の問題は、富の移転の問題ではなくて、戦争以降死亡したイラクの民間人が3万人を超えているということにあるのだけれども。 
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オイオイ、題目の金額だけでビビったぜ(・∀・;
2006/01/11(水) 19:39:26 | URL | a Go #-[ 編集]
 これだけあったら、世界をもっと平和に出来そうですよね。。 飢餓もほとんど無くせるだろうし。
2006/01/11(水) 22:55:05 | URL | Taejunomics管理人 #-[ 編集]
慎さん

ちょっと長いけど、これWall Street Journalの記事。こちらではTVでもかなり話題になって、ブッシュもかなりこの件で追及されてるみたい。日本もかなりの金額を負担させられそうで心配。絶対出しちゃ駄目だけど、日本の政治家じゃやりかねないよね。

Calm Prevails Through Iraq
On Islamic Feast Day

Iraq War May Cost $2 Trillion, Study Says
A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
January 10, 2006 11:13 p.m.

Shiite and Sunni Arabs celebrated the Islamic feast of sacrifice with calls for an end to the bloodshed that has wracked Iraq since last month's elections. Sunni Arabs tempered their appeals with renewed calls for the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

In a day with no violence reported, Iraqis nationwide celebrated the opening of the four-day Eid al-Adha celebration with visits to relatives, food and sweets. Lambs were slaughtered and food was distributed to the poor.

"This Eid is a happy day for all Muslims, especially Iraqis. But it comes after painful events that happened in Karbala and Ramadi," said Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite.

THE FIGHT FOR IRAQ



See an interactive map showing the sites of major insurgent attacks, a tally of U.S. military deaths and complete coverage of the situation in Iraq.He referred to the killings of more than 120 people in suicide bombings last week in the Shiite holy city of Karbala and at a police recruiting center in Ramadi. On Monday, suicide bombers infiltrated the heavily fortified Interior Ministry compound in Baghdad and killed 29 Iraqis -- an attack claimed by al-Qaida in Iraq, a group with an avowed aim of starting a sectarian war.

Violence has increased since the Dec. 15 elections, with at least 498 Iraqis and 54 U.S. forces killed.

Eid al-Adha -- one of Iraq's biggest holidays -- concludes the pilgrimage to Mecca and is celebrated by Muslims worldwide. It commemorates Abraham's readiness to sacrifice his son in God's test of the patriarch's faith. At the last moment, God substituted a sheep for the son. The story is shared by Islam, Judaism and Christianity.

Sunni Leader Denounces Bomb Attack

A Sunni Arab politician denounced the suicide bomb attack on a Shiite mosque that killed at least 60 people but blamed the violence in Iraq on the country's occupation by U.S. troops.

Harith al-Ubaidi of the Iraqi Accordance Front said Sunnis were "hand in hand" with Shiites against last week's attack in Karbala, south of Baghdad. His remarks were significant because the Iraqi Accordance Front is the main Sunni coalition that is negotiating with Shiites and Kurds over a coalition government.

"We also demand that the occupier get out, because he is the reason behind every crime," said Mr. Ubaidi. "If the occupier would leave, Iraqis would live as brothers." He spoke at the Umm al-Qura mosque, Baghdad headquarters of the Association of Muslim Scholars, a Sunni clerical group that is believed to have ties to some insurgent groups.

The mosque is in the al-Adel neighborhood, one of Baghdad's roughest and the same area where Jill Carroll, a 28-year-old American freelance journalist for the Christian Science Monitor, was kidnapped Saturday. No group has claimed responsibility for her abduction. (See related story.)

Bush Warns Democrats About Criticizing Iraq Policy

Meanwhile in Washington, President Bush warned Democratic critics of his Iraq policy to watch what they say or risk giving "comfort to our adversaries" and suffering at the ballot box in November. Democrats said Mr. Bush should take his own advice.

There are 10 months before congressional elections in which polls indicate the president's Republican Party could lose its dominance of Capitol Hill. But Mr. Bush is wasting no time engaging the battle. In his first speech of 2006 on the road, last week in Chicago, he aggressively challenged Democrats on the economy.


Tuesday's equally sharp message represented an attempt by the president to neutralize Democrats' ability to use Iraq -- where violence is surging in the wake of December parliamentary elections and messy negotiations to form a new coalition government -- as an election-year cudgel against Republicans.

Mr. Bush acknowledged deep differences over Iraq among casualty-weary Americans, just 39% of whom approve of his handling of the war, according to a recent AP-Ipsos survey. Without specifically mentioning Democrats, the president urged campaigning politicians to "conduct this debate responsibly."

He said he welcomed "honest critics" who question the way the war is being conducted and the "loyal opposition" that points out what is wrong with his administration's approach. But he termed irresponsible the "partisan critics who claim that we acted in Iraq because of oil or because of Israel or because we misled the American people," as well as "defeatists who refuse to see that anything is right." With that description, Mr. Bush lumped the many Democrats who have accused him of twisting pre-war intelligence with the few people, mostly outside the mainstream, who have raised the issues of oil and Israel.

Democrats said Mr. Bush has no business trying to define what sort of talk is acceptable. "Patriotic Americans will continue to ask the tough questions because our brave men and women in Iraq, their families and the American people deserve to know that their leaders are being held accountable," said Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) "President Bush should join us in this open debate and dialogue to ensure that 2006 is a year of significant transition in Iraq so more of our brave troops can come home to their families."

Report Estimates War Costs at $2 Trillion

A new study suggests the costs of the Iraq war to U.S. taxpayers could exceed $2 trillion by 2010, an estimate far exceeding the Bush administration's worst-case scenario before the war. (See full report.)

The study, prepared by Harvard University budget expert Linda Bilmes and Columbia University professor and Nobel laureate in economics Joseph E. Stiglitz, recalculates both the budgetary and economic costs of the war including long-term health-care costs and macroeconomic factors. It was presented to the annual Allied Social Sciences Association meeting in Boston, according to a statement released Sunday.

The cost is 10 times as high as the worst-case scenario of $200 billion suggested by a White House official before the war, Time magazine reported. The study assumed the U.S. mission in Iraq would last until 2010, but with a steadily declining number of U.S. troops each year, the Boston Globe reported.

The Bush administration hasn't made the kind of long-term cost estimates cited in the new study and has sought periodic installments from Congress to keep the mission going, the Globe reported. In 2003, Larry Lindsey, then President Bush's economic adviser, suggested the costs might reach $200 billion, the Guardian reported. The White House said that figure was far too high, and the then-deputy defense secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, said Iraq could finance its own reconstruction, the newspaper reported.

Mr. Stiglitz, in an interview with the Guardian Unlimited, a British newspaper, said the estimates in the study were "very conservative."

"It could be that the final costs will be much higher. And it should be noted they do not include the costs of the conflict to either Iraq or the U.K.," he said in Saturday's Guardian.

Mr. Stiglitz, who won the Nobel prize in economics in 2001, was an adviser to former President Bill Clinton, and Ms. Bilmes was an assistant secretary of commerce under Mr. Clinton.
2006/01/12(木) 14:05:59 | URL | 権兵衛 #-[ 編集]
すばらしい!
ありがとうございます。

 アメリカではかなりインパクトがあったんですね。 それにしても、スティグリッツ、かっこいい。 憧れの人の一人です。
2006/01/12(木) 17:28:51 | URL | Taejunomics管理人 #-[ 編集]
<わらび>宿泊中。。。
2006/01/12(木) 20:37:45 | URL | a Go #0uIHEKtU[ 編集]
 もてなしまっせ~♪
2006/01/12(木) 23:49:48 | URL | Taejunomics管理人 #-[ 編集]
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